Presenting a Model of Uncertainty Due to Ambiguity in the Iranian Capital Market

Abstract

This study was conducted with the aim of presenting a model of uncertainty due to ambiguity in the Iranian capital market. The research approach was qualitative-quantitative, and effective dimensions and indicators were first extracted by using the fuzzy Delphi method and receiving the opinions of 15 selected financial experts in a targeted manner. The data collection tool included expert-based questionnaires and a researcher-made questionnaire based on the final variables of the study. Subsequently, the structural-interpretive approach (ISM) was used to model relationships and classify variables. The research results led to the identification and classification of six hierarchical levels of effective factors; so that variables such as macroeconomic conditions, company information behavior, financial reporting quality, investor behavioral factors, and profit quality indicators were each placed at different levels of influence. At the sixth level, which is the most important and influential level, the factors include “investor behavioral biases, earnings sustainability, and discretionary accruals.” These findings, while providing a systematic picture of the dimensions and relationships of uncertainty resulting from ambiguity in the Iranian capital market, can serve as the basis for formulating policies and strategies to improve transparency and reduce information risk for company managers, investors, and policymakers.