Developing a Scenario Model of Shadow Banking under Neurotic Structural Disruptions in Iran’s Economic System
Keywords:
Shadow Banking, Neurotic Structural Disruption, Futures StudiesAbstract
This study aims to develop and analyze plausible scenarios of shadow banking under the emergence of neurotic structural disruptions in Iran’s economic system. This research adopted an exploratory–developmental mixed-method design conducted in qualitative and quantitative phases; the qualitative phase employed grounded theory through open, axial, and selective coding based on 20 expert interviews, followed by Delphi analysis to assess consensus, while the quantitative phase utilized matrix analysis, MICMAC, and scenario planning techniques to identify key drivers and future outlooks. The findings indicated that the paradigmatic structure of shadow banking consists of causal, contextual, and intervening conditions along with strategies and consequences, where systematic and financial risks emerged as dominant outcomes; scenario analysis revealed four possible futures—Gradual Death, Explosion, Flame Fire, and Ashen Aura—with the Gradual Death scenario identified as the most probable, primarily driven by the paranoid dimension of neurotic structural disruption. The results suggest that neurotic structural disruptions, particularly in their paranoid dimension, significantly intensify the adverse consequences of shadow banking and shape the trajectory of future economic scenarios toward higher systemic risk.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Omid Kargar Shooroki (Author); Gholamreza Askarzadeh (Corresponding author); Alireza Rayati Shavazi, Hamid Khajeh Mahmoodabadi (Author)
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