طراحی الگوی پیشران‌های ریسک‌پذیری در نظام بانکی ایران: پیوند با آینده‌پژوهی با رویکرد سناریونویسی

زهرا شعبانی; عباس شیبانی تذرجی; کاظم شمس الدینی; حسین شفیعی

Authors

Zahra Shabani Department of Accounting, Si.C., Islamic Azad University, Sirjan, Iran. Author
Abbas Shaibani tazarogi Department of Accounting, Si.C., Islamic Azad University, Sirjan, Iran. Corresponding author
Kazem Shamsoddini Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran. Author
Hossein Shafiee Department of Accounting, Si.C., Islamic Azad University, Sirjan, Iran. Author

Keywords:

Risk-taking drivers model, banking system, content analysis, futures studies

Abstract

This study aims to develop an integrated model of key drivers influencing risk-taking in the Iranian banking system and to explore its plausible futures through foresight and scenario planning. This research adopted a pragmatic mixed-method exploratory design. In the qualitative phase, data were collected through 15 semi-structured interviews with senior banking risk experts and analyzed using thematic analysis, leading to the identification of four global themes, eight organizing themes, and 37 basic themes. In the quantitative phase, the interrelationships among the drivers were examined using cross-impact analysis and the key variables were extracted. Based on these critical drivers, future scenarios were constructed using a structured scenario planning approach. The rigor of the qualitative model was ensured through credibility, transferability, confirmability, and test–retest reliability procedures. The findings revealed that macroeconomic instability, monetary policies, financial structure, and macro policies exert the strongest direct and indirect effects on banking risk-taking. Accordingly, four dominant scenarios—Stability and Sustainability, Systemic Fragility, Systemic Collapse, and Systemic Chaos—were identified, representing a comprehensive range of possible futures for banking risk behavior. The results indicate that effective management of bank risk-taking requires a structural understanding of its driving forces and future uncertainties, and that scenario-based foresight provides a robust strategic framework for sustainable banking policymaking in Iran.

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