Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations and the Intensity of Commercial Development on the Consumption of Renewable Energies in Iran
Keywords:
Iran, innovation, renewable energy , business development, oil priceAbstract
This study aims to examine the asymmetric effects of oil price fluctuations, trade development intensity, innovation, and human development on renewable energy consumption in Iran. The research employed a descriptive–analytical approach using time series data from 2001–2020. Oil price volatility was estimated through the EGARCH model, and both short-run and long-run relationships among variables were analyzed using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The main variables included oil price volatility, trade development intensity (exports plus imports to GDP ratio), global innovation index, and human development index. Data were collected from international sources such as the World Bank, EIA, and UNDP. The EGARCH model confirmed significant and stable oil price volatility. NARDL estimations revealed that all variables were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. In the short run, positive changes in oil price volatility, trade development, innovation, and human development had significant positive impacts on renewable energy consumption, whereas negative changes had adverse effects. In the long run, a 1% increase in trade development, innovation, human development, and oil price volatility led to rises of 1.52%, 1.04%, 0.89%, and 0.68% in renewable energy consumption, respectively. The bounds test confirmed the presence of long-term cointegration among the variables. Trade development emerged as the most influential determinant of renewable energy consumption, followed by innovation, oil price volatility, and human development. The results highlight the need for improved renewable energy policies, enhancement of technological infrastructure, and trade facilitation to strengthen renewable energy utilization in Iran.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Fatemeh Eghbal Manesh (Author); Shahriyar Nessabian (Corresponding author); Mahmood Mahmoodzadeh, Alireza Daghighiasli (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
