Developing a Strategic–Operational Plan and Forecasting the Financial Program of Aradan Municipality Using the ARIMA Econometric Technique
Keywords:
QSPM matrix, ARIMA econometric technique, Municipal strategic operational planningAbstract
This study aims to formulate a strategic–operational development plan for Aradan city and to forecast sustainable municipal revenues using the ARIMA econometric model. This applied, descriptive–analytical research employed the Delphi technique, SWOT analysis, IFE and EFE matrices, and the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) to identify and prioritize urban development strategies, while municipal revenue data from 2017–2020 were modeled using ARIMA to forecast financial performance for the period 2021–2025. The strategic assessment positioned Aradan in a defensive (WT) posture with highest-priority strategies emerging across service delivery, tourism–environment, transportation, urban design, institutional governance, socio-cultural development, and economic growth; ARIMA outputs further indicated a stable and upward municipal revenue trajectory over the forecast horizon, strengthening financial planning reliability. The integration of participatory strategic planning with ARIMA-based financial forecasting offers a robust framework for sustainable urban development, enhanced fiscal stability, and improved municipal governance, and provides a transferable planning model for similar municipalities.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Reza Ziari (Corresponding author); Zahra Moghimi, Ramin Samadi (Author)
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